Monthly Labour Survey Misconduct since at Least the 1990s

TANAKA Sigeto <http://tsigeto.info>
(Graduate School of Arts and Letters, Tohoku University)

[Full-text PDF] [SocArXiv] [Academia.edu]

[Communication] [Links]

• Title: Monthly Labour Survey Misconduct since at Least the 1990s: Falsified Statistics in Japan
• Author: TANAKA Sigeto
• Date: 2019-03-05
• Language: ENG
• DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/2bf3z
• SocArXiv: http://osf.io/2bf3z/
• Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/38489146

URI: http://tsigeto.info/19m

OSF project: https://osf.io/9kp8c/

Abstract

The Monthly Labour Survey, which is one of the major economic statistics published by the Government of Japan, has been under criticism since January 2019 due to its negligent survey conduct and misinformation regarding its results. This paper approaches this scandal from a viewpoint of how the indicators of the quality of the survey were falsified and misreported. Based on published information regarding sample size and sampling errors, the author outlines three problems. (1) Since at least the 1990s, the survey’s sample size has been reported as larger than it actually was. (2) Since 2002, a significant portion of the sample has been secretly discarded. (3) Since 2004, the sampling error has been underreported by ignoring errors occurring in the strata of large establishments. These problems have escaped public attention as the government and academics are not critical of the falsification of basic information that determines the quality of the survey.

Keywords

labor statistics, sample size, sampling error, economic indicator, wage survey

Contents

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Sample Size Reduction since at Least the 1990s
  • 2.1. Reduced sample and falsified figures
  • 2.2. When did it begin?
• 3. Sampling Rate Falsification since 2002
  • 3.1. Sharp increase of sampling errors during 2002-2003
  • 3.2. How many survey targets were illegally discarded?
  • 3.3. Further questions about the illegal sample discarding
• 4. Relative Error Falsification since 2004
• 5. Japanese Authority Indulges in Data Falsification
• Appendix
  • A.1. Relative sampling errors published in the Annual Report
  • A.2. Estimation of the proportion of illegally discarded samples in 2003
  • A.3. Data
  • A.4. Results
    • A.4.1. Results for establishments with 100-499 regular employees
    • A.4.2. Results for establishments with 30-99 regular employees
  • A.5. Script

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Number of establishments surveyed by the Monthly Labour Survey and their published figures (2004-2018)
• Figure 1: Changes in the relative error in the Monthly Labour Survey (1990-2017)
• Table A.1: Proportion of discarded sample (establishments with 100-499 regular employees)
• Table A.2: Proportion of discarded sample (establishments with 30-99 regular employees)

References

1. 厚生労働省 政策統括官 (統計・情報政策、政策評価担当) (2019) 毎月勤労統計において全数調査するとしていたところを一部抽出調査で行っていたことについて (追加資料). (統計委員会, January 17, 資料2-2) {http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000594893.pdf}
2. 厚生労働省 (2019) 毎月勤労統計調査において全数調査するとしていたところを一部抽出調査で行っていたことについて. (Press release, January 11) {https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_03207.html}
3. 厚生労働省 大臣官房 統計情報部 (2009) 毎月勤労統計要覧 平成20年版. 労務行政. {ISBN:9784845291540}
4. 厚生労働省 政策統括官 (統計・情報政策担当) (2018) 毎月勤労統計要覧 平成29年版. 労務行政. {ISBN:9784845282746}
5. 毎月勤労統計調査等に関する特別監察委員会 (2019) 毎月勤労統計調査を巡る不適切な取扱いに係る事実関係とその評価等に関する報告書. (January 22) {https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_03321.html}
6. 総務省 統計局 (1999) 平成11年事業所・企業統計調査. {http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jigyou/1999/}
7. 朝日新聞 (2018) 勤労統計、全数調査怠る 都内は約3分の1を抽出 GDPにも影響か 厚労省. 朝日新聞デジタル. December 28, 16:30 {https://www.asahi.com/articles/DA3S13831541.html}
8. 厚生労働省 大臣官房 統計情報部 (2004) 毎月勤労統計要覧 平成16年版. 労務行政. {ISBN:484524232X}
9. 厚生労働省 大臣官房 統計情報部 (2003) 毎月勤労統計要覧 平成14年版. 労務行政. {ISBN:4845231492}
10. 厚生労働省 大臣官房 統計情報部 (2002) 毎月勤労統計要覧 平成13年版. 労務行政研究所. {ISBN:484522142X}
11. 総務庁 統計局 統計基準部 (1993) 日本標準産業分類 (平成5年10月改定). {http://www.soumu.go.jp/toukei_toukatsu/index/seido/sangyo/5index.htm}
12. 田中 重人 (2019) 「毎月勤労統計調査」は90年代以前から改ざんされていた? データ改ざんに甘い社会. wezzy. 2019.02.07 {https://wezz-y.com/archives/63479}
13. 田中 重人 (2019) 捨てられていたサンプル: 毎月勤労統計調査2001-2003データの検証. (January 25) {https://remcat.hatenadiary.jp/entry/20190125/maikin2003}

Notes

Sections 1-5 are based on a Japanese article published by an online media site “wezzy” [12]. The Appendix is based on a Japanese blog article by the author [13]. The author would like to thank Editage (www.editage.jp) for translation and English language editing.

Supplements

[* Japanese index]

• Sampling rates and errors (copies from the Annual Report, 1982-2016) (PDF 6 MB)
• Relative errors 1982-2017 (by establishment size) (Tab-separated text)
• Relative sampling erros for 2001 and 2003 (by industriy and establishment size) (Tab-separated text)
• Perl script used for the analysis in Appendix (Printed in A.5)

Communication

Questions/comments are welcome.

• E-mail
• SNS
• Academia.edu
• OSF project

Related sites and pages

[Full-text PDF] [on SocArXiv] [on Academia.edu]

• On the scandal of the Monthly Labour Survey (in Japanese)
• My blog articles on this scandal (mainly in Japanese)
• Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare / Outline and data of The Monthly Labour Survey (English) | Detailed explanation in Japanese
• Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training / Introduction to Wage Statistics in Japan (KAWAGUCHI Daiji (2013) Japan labor review. 10(4):24-33)

Tohoku Univ / School of Arts and Letters / TANAKA Sigeto / * Govenmental statistics / * Monthly Labour Survey

History of this page:

• 2019-03-05:Created
• 2019-03-06:Revised
• 2019-03-19:Minor correction

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Copyright (c) 2019 TANAKA Sigeto